Quantitative Analyse der sektoralen Auswirkungen einer Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus in der EU

Der ökologische Landbau hat sich in der Europäischen Union im letzten Jahrzehnt äußerst dynamisch entwickelt. In Anbetracht der agrar- und gesellschaftspolitischen Rahmenbedingungen und der steigenden Nachfrage nach ökologisch erzeugten Produkten ist eine weitere Ausdehnung zu erwarten. Vor diesem Hintergrund untersucht diese Arbeit, welche Folgen eine deutliche Ausdehnung ökologischer Landbausysteme in der Europäischen Union im Hinblick auf Landnutzung, Agrarproduktion, Märkte und Umwelt hat. Für die quantitative Analyse wird das komparativ-statisches Agrarsektormodell CAPRI erweitert und angepasst. Eine Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus auf 10 oder 20 % der LF wirkt sich auf eine Reihe von politikrelevanten Parametern des EU-Agrarsektors aus. Die Effekte fallen jedoch zum Teil deutlich geringer aus, als dies ausgehend von einzelbetrieblichen Vergleichsrechnungen prognostiziert wird. Folgende Auswirkungen einer Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus auf 10 oder 20 % der LF lassen sich festhalten: - Änderungen bei den Produktionsstrukturen - Die Erzeugung fast aller Produkte geht bei steigender Bedeutung des ökologischen Landbaus zurück, Quotenprodukte stellen hier eine wichtige Ausnahme dar - Für eine Reihe von landwirtschaftlichen Erzeugnissen ist aufgrund des Produktionsrückgangs mit einem leichten Anstieg der Erzeugerpreise zu rechnen. Eine Ausnahme stellen die Preise für Getreide und Kälber dar. - Im Hinblick auf die Umweltwirkungen einer Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus weist die quantitative Analyse ausgewählter Agrarumweltindikatoren auf eine positive Gesamtentwicklung bei Nährstoffüberschüssen, bei der Verwendung von Pflanzenschutzmitteln und bei der Emission von Treibhausgasen hin. In einem zweiten Arbeitsschritt untersucht die vorliegende Arbeit, inwieweit sich innerhalb des gewählten Modellansatzes Aspekte der Prognose und Politikfolgenabschätzung für den ökologischen Landbau integrieren lassen. Dazu werden die Auswirkungen der Änderungen verschiedener exogener Einflussfaktoren auf die Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus analysiert. Neben der derzeit viel diskutierten Erhöhung der Förderung für den ökologischen Landbau und einer Finanzierung durch den gleichzeitigen Abbau der Stützung in anderen Bereichen des Agrarsektors werden auch die Folgen eines vollständigen Abbaus der Preisaufschläge für ökologisch erzeugte Produkte betrachtet. Die Ergebnisse der Modellrechnungen belegen, dass die Auswirkungen einer Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus in erheblichem Maße von der regionalen Verteilung und der Produktionsrichtung der umstellenden Betriebe abhängen. Damit eröffnet sich für die Politik die Möglichkeit, über die Ausgestaltung der Förderung aktiv die Erreichung definierter Ziele effizienter zu verfolgen. Um für eine zielorientierte Ausgestaltung der Förderung weitergehende Empfehlungen geben zu können, sollten zukünftige Untersuchungen neben der Folgenabschätzung und der Analyse geeigneter Maßnahmen zur Förderung einer Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus auch die Diskussion des „optimalen“ Anteils des ökologischen Landbaus vor dem Hintergrund der jeweiligen Ziele im Rahmen einer Zielanalyse bzw. Ziel-Mittel-Analyse umfassen. Angesichts der Vielzahl der agrarpolitischen Ziele und der komplexen Wechselbeziehungen bei gleichzeitig noch unvollständiger Informationslage stellt die Bearbeitung dieser Fragestellung allerdings ein ambitiöses Vorhaben dar, das voraussichtlich nur schrittweise zu lösen sein wird. Kurzfassung der Zusammenfassung aus: Offermann, F. (2003): Quantitative Analyse der sektoralen Auswirkungen einer Ausdehnung des ökologischen Landbaus in der EU. Berliner Schriften zur Agrar- und Umweltökonomik, Band 5. Aachen: Shaker Verlag

Key issues of linking models for policy impact assessment in agriculture

Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Impact of the EU Common Agricultural Policy on Organic in Comparison to Conventional Farms

Farms in the EU receive considerable support from the Common Agricultural Policy. Support for organic and conventional farms is analysed, covering a wide range of different Common Agricultural Policy support measures. The current design of the Common Market Organisations tends to disadvantage organic farming systems, although developments in the last two CAP reforms (year 1992 and 2000) and the latest reform (2003) have reduced the discrimination of extensive farming systems and now provide opportunities to introduce measures to meet some of the needs of organic farms.agricultural policy, farm accounts, Agricultural and Food Policy, Q18, Q12,

Potential of differentiated payment levels based on standard cost approaches: A case study of selected rural development measures in Germany

In accordance with EU regulations, payment levels for several measures of rural development programs are calculated on the basis of standard cost approaches, using 'typical’ or average figures for costs incurred and income forgone. Resulting uniform payment rates have been frequently discussed and criticised as being inefficient, having a low cost-effectiveness and generating excessive windfall profits. However, few empirical studies exist which quantitatively examine potentials of a more differentiated standard cost approach. By using German farm accountancy data, this study analyses effects of a payment differentiation according to regional and farm individual characteristics on producer rents, budget expenditures and economic efficiency. Preliminary results show that though overcompensation could be reduced in most cases, savings in budget expenditure are often small and might be even offset by increasing administration costs. Generally our analysis indicates that potential benefits of differentiated standard cost approaches can be partly exploited if a) variances of the cost of participation in the universe of farms are high and the discriminatory natures of differentiation are significant, and b) positive correlations between costs and environmental benefits are strong

Impact of the 2003 CAP reform on organic farming in Germany

The financial performance of organic and conventional farming is highly influenced by the EU direct payment policy. While organic farms receive considerable support from agrienvironmental programmes, the design of the first pillar put organic farming at a disadvantage in the past. The 2003 CAP reform has changed this situation particularly by decoupling direct payments and reducing price support. This paper has therefore the aim to identify and assess the impact of the CAP reform on the relative profitability and production structure of organic farms in Germany. The statistical analysis of FADN data from the years 2003/04 and 2006/07 suggests that differences in payments from the first pillar decreased, affecting positively the relative profitability of organic farms. A survey among German organic farmers revealed however that only a minority attributes substantial changes in profits to the CAP reform and decoupling, respectively. The outcomes of this investigation suggest that organic farmers still require more specific information and advice in order to use the new possibilities given through decoupling

Potential of differentiated payment levels based on standard cost approaches: A case study of selected rural development measures in Germany

In accordance with EU regulations, payment levels for several measures of rural development programs are calculated on the basis of standard cost approaches, using 'typical’ or average figures for costs incurred and income forgone. Resulting uniform payment rates have been frequently discussed and criticised as being inefficient, having a low cost-effectiveness and generating excessive windfall profits. However, few empirical studies exist which quantitatively examine potentials of a more differentiated standard cost approach. By using German farm accountancy data, this study analyses effects of a payment differentiation according to regional and farm individual characteristics on producer rents, budget expenditures and economic efficiency. Preliminary results show that though overcompensation could be reduced in most cases, savings in budget expenditure are often small and might be even offset by increasing administration costs. Generally our analysis indicates that potential benefits of differentiated standard cost approaches can be partly exploited if a) variances of the cost of participation in the universe of farms are high and the discriminatory natures of differentiation are significant, and b) positive correlations between costs and environmental benefits are strong.differentiated payment levels, efficiency, cost-effectiveness, standard cost approach, rural development schemes, agri-environmental measures,

Impacts of Decoupling and Milk Quota Trade on the French and German Dairy Sectors

This paper analyses the impacts of the 2003 CAP reform and of milk quota trade at the national level. To this end, a mathematical programming model has been further developed for Germany and extended to other main milk-producing EU member states like France. Homogeneous farm groups are built on the basis of EU Farm Accountancy Data Network. The results show that quotas will be fully used in both countries if quota trade is possible. A clear tendency in the reallocation of production from small towards large farms can be seen in all regions for France. In Germany, the redistribution of direct payments induced by the implementation of the regional scheme of decoupled payments leads to higher reductions of income in dairy & beef farms than in France.2003 CAP reform, milk quota trade, model, mathematical programming, International Relations/Trade,

IMPACT OF THE 2003 CAP REFORM ON ORGANIC FARMING IN GERMANY

The financial performance of organic and conventional farming is highly influenced by the EU direct payment policy. While organic farms receive considerable support from agrienvironmental programmes, the design of the first pillar put organic farming at a disadvantage in the past. The 2003 CAP reform has changed this situation particularly by decoupling direct payments and reducing price support. This paper has therefore the aim to identify and assess the impact of the CAP reform on the relative profitability and production structure of organic farms in Germany. The statistical analysis of FADN data from the years 2003/04 and 2006/07 suggests that differences in payments from the first pillar decreased, affecting positively the relative profitability of organic farms. A survey among German organic farmers revealed however that only a minority attributes substantial changes in profits to the CAP reform and decoupling, respectively. The outcomes of this investigation suggest that organic farmers still require more specific information and advice in order to use the new possibilities given through decoupling.organic farming, decoupling, relative profitability, CAP Health Check, Agricultural and Food Policy, Q18,

Distributional Effects of the CAP on Western German Farm Incomes and Regional Farm Income Disparity

This study is concerned with measuring impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on farm income distribution of western Germany. Not only the sheer contribution of market price support and direct payments as a proportion of income is taken into account, but also the impact of support on production incentives. For this purpose, we apply a modelling system consisting of a partial equilibrium model and a programming model. Based on a comparison of Gini coefficients and a decomposition of overall inequality effects we conclude that liberalization of the agricultural sector leads to a more unequal distribution of family farm income in relative terms, whereas a liberalized market provides a more equal situation in absolute terms. Furthermore, we consider the impacts of liberalizing the agricultural market on regional differences in average agricultural income and conclude that in relative terms liberalization increases regional inequality.Income distribution, CAP, Farm Group Model, Equilibrium Model, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance,

The challenges of model based policy advice

In policy consultation, communicating model results to administration and policy makers has always proven to be a challenge for scientists. Many of the relevant preconditions for effective and successful policy advice are aggravated when results are based on the simultaneous use of a multitude of different models. This paper identifies key issues – e.g., relations to administration; correct identification of prevailing objectives of all agents involved; ability to run scenarios ‘in time’ - and discusses strategies for successful communication based on the experiences of the vTI model network. Specific attention is paid to the issue of communicating ‘conflicting’ results of different models: while often seen as a source for scientific insight, such ‘inconsistencies’ have proven to be a major obstacle for acceptance in a non-academic institutional setting. The experiences, as well as the literature, point specifically to the importance of tight linkages between modellers and policy makers, and the need to abandon decisionist or technocratic approaches of policy advice in favour of pragmatic approaches stressing the bilateral nature of communication.model network, policy advice, Agricultural and Food Policy, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,